Since December, I’ve had a series of surreal conversations with global investors—across North America and Europe. Each time, I ask a simple question:
“How are you adapting your investment thesis or business model to reflect the new Trump administration?”
The answer, more often than not?
“It doesn’t change anything.”
Really? Nothing?
This unwavering stance—expressed with confidence and even pride—has left me perplexed. I understand the instinct. There’s comfort in declaring yourself above the chaos. There’s even a kind of nationalistic defiance in pretending politics don’t matter to capital. But there’s a dangerous gap between the world as we wish it were and the world as it actually is.
And right now, the gap is widening.
📉 This Is Not Noise—It’s Policy
Since the inauguration, we’ve seen a tangible shift in U.S. economic policy that is already rippling through global business:
Buy America initiatives are gaining traction—not just rhetoric, but procurement directives affecting defense, infrastructure, and energy sectors.
Tariffs are being proposed or imposed in critical sectors: automotive, steel, semiconductors, agriculture, and pharma.
The S&P 500 has dropped over 12% since January, at one point erasing nearly $5 trillion in market cap.
Federal spending priorities have been reshaped, with budget cuts hitting public services and regulation-heavy industries—while defense, border infrastructure, and fossil fuels receive tailwinds.
To claim none of this impacts investment strategy or business operations is not only naïve—it signals a lack of strategic awareness.
đź’¸ Even in Private Markets, Uncertainty Is Contagious
Private markets don’t operate in a vacuum. When macro signals shift, pricing becomes harder—on both the buy and sell side.
Volatility, even if not directly market-traded, disrupts sentiment, widens bid-ask spreads, delays exits, and introduces doubt into underwriting.
And here’s the kicker: redemptions are rising. In 2023 alone, U.S. private market funds saw an average 25% increase in redemption requests compared to the prior year. Investors want liquidity—but how are you returning capital in an environment where exits are slowing, valuations are compressed, and leverage is less accessible?
Add to that: allocators are rethinking their forward capital plans. For those not repatriating capital back to the U.S., they’re shifting away from perceived “policy risk zones” and toward asset classes or geographies that feel more insulated from nationalist crosswinds.
🔄 Resistance Is Futile. Adaptation Isn’t.
Some institutional investors are responding. They’re reallocating into policy-aligned sectors—domestic infrastructure, automation, critical minerals, AI-defense hybrids.
But behind closed doors, many still resist. They’re hoping the winds will die down. That the pendulum will swing back.
But hope isn’t a strategy. And pretending the storm isn’t real won’t keep your ship afloat.
🧠What Strategic Adaptation Looks Like
So, what does adaptation mean right now?
✅ Trump-proof your investments. This starts with value creation at the core—by stress-testing business models, rethinking go-to-market strategies, and repositioning for policy resilience, not just product-market fit.
âś… Reprice geopolitical and policy risk. Stress-test exposure to U.S.-centric regulatory volatility.
âś… Stay liquid and flexible. Build optionality in fund terms and deal structures.
âś… Rethink timing and targets. A great asset at the wrong moment is still a bad outcome.
✅ Diversify new capital flow away from U.S. single-policy exposure—toward sectors and markets less subject to whiplash governance.
This isn’t about politics. It’s about performance.
If your current strategy assumes nothing has changed, then I’d argue—everything has already changed for you. You just haven’t seen it yet.
Peggy Van de Plassche is a seasoned advisor with over 20 years of experience in financial services, healthcare, and technology. She specializes in guiding boards and C-suite executives through transformational change, leveraging technology and capital allocation to drive growth and innovation. A founding board member of Invest in Canada, Peggy also brings unique expertise in navigating complex issues and fostering public-private partnerships—key elements in shaping the Future of Business. Her skill set includes strategic leadership, capital allocation, transaction advisory, technology integration, and governance. Notable clients include BMO, CI Financial, HOOPP, OMERS, GreenShield Canada, Nicola Wealth, and Power Financial. For more information, visit peggyvandeplassche.com.
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